Can Florida’s Billy Napier recover? Is James Franklin the new Mark Richt?
Florida head coach Billy Napier made only a brief appearance in Jaden Rashada’s 37-page lawsuit filed Tuesday, but the scene of Napier allegedly promising Rashada’s father $1 million on signing day if the quarterback sent his letter of intent was enough to get himself sued — and to start a fresh round of drama in Gainesville.
Florida has been borderline self-righteous about its NCAA compliance operation for as long as I’ve been a Gator fan. Billy Napier’s only been the head coach for about two-and-a-half years, yet UF has already been the target of a major NCAA investigation, and he got himself sued over recruiting hijinks. This strikes at the program’s self-proclaimed identity. Is there any way for Napier to come back from this, especially if the Gators struggle to another four- or five-win season? — Andrew B., Boulder, Colo.
I did not realize NCAA compliance was a part of Florida’s self-proclaimed identity. I’ll have to take your word for it.
It’s often hard for me to gauge how a fan base truly feels about its coach because the disgruntled ones are always the loudest. But it does feel like the heat is on Napier after the Gators started 5-2 then lost five straight games to end last season. As for the Rashada NIL debacle, Napier certainly doesn’t come off well in the lawsuit filed Tuesday. There are few remaining NCAA rules surrounding NIL, but a head coach allegedly promising a kid $1 million to sign is still a no-no.
It’s more fuel for Napier’s critics, but let’s be honest. If Napier were coming off a 10-win season, Florida fans would be playing all the same cards as Michigan fans last season — there’s no proof he said that, everybody else is doing the same thing, go investigate Mike Norvell, blah, blah, blah. But he’s coming off 5-7, after a 6-7 debut season, so I don’t see a lot of rallying around the coach.
The Gators need to show considerable improvement this fall, but they will be playing a schedule that includes eight likely preseason Top 25 teams, most notably Georgia, Texas and Florida State. Even if he were to split those games, you’re still looking at 8-4 in Year 3 and 19-18 overall. His predecessor, Dan Mullen, got fired after four seasons despite going 10-3, 11-2 and 8-4 (with an SEC title game appearance) in his first three years.
But it would also be very expensive to fire Napier after just three seasons — his buyout is $25.7 million. Ironically, Florida may have lost the ability to fire him for cause, with the NCAA backing off its investigation into Rashada’s recruitment following February’s preliminary injunction in Tennessee prohibiting the NCAA from enforcing its rules around NIL and boosters.
If I’m Florida, I’m rooting like heck for Napier to wildly exceed expectations this season, if for no other reason than to break the school’s endless cycle of hiring and firing coaches. Napier is Florida’s fourth head coach since Urban Meyer’s exit after the 2010 season, following Will Muschamp (2011-14), Jim McElwain (2015-17) and Mullen (2018-21). Were the Gators to hire yet another coach in 2025, it would mark four straight who lasted four years or less. That’s not a winning formula.
The best hope is that Napier’s portal class comes up big. Just this month he’s added Arizona State receiver Elijah Badger, who had 135 catches for 1,579 yards over the last two seasons, and Colorado cornerback Cormani McClain, a five-star recruit in the class of 2023 who started four games as a freshman. Safety Asa Turner was a mainstay for Washington. Cornerback Trikweze Bridges was a starter in 2022 at Oregon. And Chimere Dike was a productive receiver for Wisconsin. Napier could use a lift from all of them.
Here’s a shot out of a cannon. Lincoln Riley, Ryan Day and Brian Kelly. … You have to hire one, fire one and hire one as your coordinator. Go. — Jeff G.
This may be the only imaginable situation where a school hires an offensive coordinator before it hires a head coach. Riley is the no-brainer OC. His track record of Heisman QBs and high-scoring offenses going back to Oklahoma speaks for itself. And mercifully, he’d have no input in the whole defense thing.
The Day/Kelly decision is much harder. They’re both highly accomplished head coaches but have undeniable holes in their resumes. The case for anointing Kelly is that he’s been at it longer and has won big at multiple levels. He took over an LSU program that had gone .500 the previous two seasons and was mired in dysfunction, brought in Jayden Daniels, who at the time was not an obvious candidate, and immediately won 10 games and a division title.
But Kelly, as we know, tends to lose most of the biggest games on his schedule, even while becoming the winningest coach in Notre Dame history. He’s polarizing publicly. And his recent comments about the portal and NIL did not inspire confidence that he’s wired for the rapidly changing landscape.
Day’s record speaks for itself: 56-8 as a head coach, including 39-3 in the Big Ten, with three Playoff berths in five seasons. Every one of his five teams has finished in the top 10. And he’s a good recruiter who’s produced three first-round QBs (including the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year) and a never-ending treasure chest of high-end receivers.
But the obvious knock against Day is his three straight losses to his school’s archrival. And one might also make the “born on third base” argument that he took over a ready-made national title contender from Meyer. His most recent season, now fully removed from the Meyer era, was his “worst” to date. (The Buckeyes still started 11-0 before losing to Michigan and Missouri.)
Ultimately, I’m hiring Day, primarily because he “gets” the NIL/portal era, as evidenced by the all-star team he’s put together for 2024. I do recognize that a Day/Riley presidential ticket would make it extra important that he hires a good DC, but he’s already done that at Ohio State with Jim Knowles, whose unit finished No. 3 in the country last season.
I take no pleasure in “firing” Kelly, a future Hall of Fame coach. By no means am I suggesting LSU should be remotely considering doing it in real life. I’m just doing what the question asked me to. Hopefully, we could retain him as an analyst.
Is James Franklin at Penn State comparable to Mark Richt at UGA? Richt won two SEC championships in 15 years, with no national championship appearances, a .750 overall record and a .690 SEC record. Franklin has been at PSU for 10 years, won one Big Ten championship and has records of .690 and .640. — Anthony C., Columbus, Ohio
While they both fit the “close, but not quite” label, I would not put Franklin’s tenure to date on the same level as Richt’s. For one thing, Franklin has not come close to winning a national title. His team’s highest final ranking in a season was No. 7, in both 2016 and 2022. The Nittany Lions never reached the four-team CFP.
Richt, on the other hand, had three teams in his first 12 seasons finish in the top five. His 2002 team that went 13-1 would have made a four-team Playoff, and his 2007 (which finished the season No. 2) and 2012 (No. 5) squads would have been in the mix.
And while Richt’s teams generally played second fiddle first to Florida under Meyer and then Alabama under Nick Saban, they did win a lot of big games — 12 of them against top-10 opponents. Franklin arguably has just one signature win, the 2016 upset of No. 2 Ohio State that propelled Penn State to the Big Ten championship. Overall, he is 3-17 against top-10 opponents.
It’s easy to play revisionist history about Richt now, nearly a decade after his 2015 ouster, given the juggernaut Georgia became once Kirby Smart took over. But in real-time, he was considered one of the best coaches in the sport for most of his tenure, even as Georgia fans grew frustrated over too many losses to Florida and his inability to reach a national title game.
Based solely on record, Franklin has had a successful tenure at Penn State, but it’s based on a lot of empty calories. He needs to show he can beat a highly ranked Ohio State- or Michigan-type team occasionally.
Who will you be playing as first in NCAA Football 25? — Joseph Y.
OK, I don’t want to be a get-off-my-lawn guy, but …
I played the heck out of that game back in the day, but I’m 48 years old, guys. I have a wife, a mortgage and a kid. I have not owned a video game system in at least 15 years, and even if a PlayStation arrived at my door tomorrow — when the heck would I play it? It’s hard enough to find time to watch an actual sporting event (that I’m not paid to write about), much less a virtual one.
I know I usually answer peoples’ questions, but this week I have one for all you married dads who are gamers.
How?
Stewart, you are a TV exec charged with creating a Big Ten/SEC challenge for football. Pair up the teams any way you want that you believe will create the most equal matchups (yes, two BIG teams will sit it out) — Jordan H., Lincoln, Nebraska
First of all, can we please make this happen in real life? Do it in Week 1. Start the season strong.
My lineup for this season would be:
- Georgia vs. Ohio State
- Texas vs. Oregon
- Alabama vs. Michigan
- Ole Miss vs. Washington
- Oklahoma vs. Penn State
- Missouri vs. Iowa
- LSU vs. USC (this one’s actually happening)
- Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
- Texas A&M vs. Nebraska
- Kentucky vs. UCLA
- Florida vs. Northwestern
- Auburn vs. Illinois
- South Carolina vs. Minnesota
- Arkansas vs. Maryland
- Mississippi State vs. Rutgers
- Vanderbilt vs. Purdue
(Michigan State and Indiana were left out based on being the two lowest-ranked Big Ten teams in Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ ratings.)
My two takeaways from doing this exercise: 1) More than half the games include at least one realistic CFP contender. And 2) Once again, you realize how much deeper the SEC is. The first five or so games are toss-ups, but my overall prediction would be the SEC finishes at least 11-5.
As even the biggest athletic programs find the need to direct even more funds (NIL, TV revenue, tickets, other donations) to the football and in some cases, basketball programs, do you think the non-revenue sports are in danger of being viewed as a luxury that’s no longer viable? Will the likes of Ohio State and Texas be forced to cut back on programs to stay at the top of the arms race? Or will there be so much TV money that it will cover everything as it has in the past? — Dave, Columbus, Ohio
It’s definitely a major concern. Should the proposed House v. NCAA settlement go through this week, schools would be allowed to begin sharing revenue with the athletes up to about $20 million-plus per year. Though schools aren’t required to spend that, you can bet anyone trying to compete for championships will do so whether they can afford it or not. And that $20 million-plus has to come from somewhere.
I’m not worried about Ohio State and Texas. Those schools’ athletic departments run an annual surplus and can easily afford it. I’d worry about middle- and lower-class schools, many of which already rely on university subsidies to stay afloat. That’s a massive added cost, coupled with the fact the settlement costs themselves are going to require the schools to sacrifice revenue in coming years from NCAA and conference distributions.
But all this happens to be coming at a time when many of the non-revenue sports are enjoying unprecedented popularity. Not just women’s basketball, but the likes of softball, gymnastics, lacrosse and so on. Recent attempts by some schools to cut sports have resulted in a public backlash that prompted the schools to do an about-face.
There’s also Title IX. No one seems to have any idea how the law will apply to the distribution of $20 million, but it’s possible athletic departments will do a straight-up $10 million/$10 million split, in which case there’s no incentive to reduce your number of women’s athletes. Men’s non-revenue athletes may be at more risk.
But consider the optics if a Power 4 school does cut a bunch of sports. Much of the decade-long push to allow athletes to be compensated was a result of increased public awareness of the billions in TV revenue floating through college sports and the increasingly lavish salaries of coaches and athletic directors. If you’re a seven-figure AD, good luck spinning the need to cut some of your Olympic sports while paying the head football coach $5 million, the coordinators $1.5 million each, the DBs coach $800,000, etc.
I’m not saying some sports won’t get cut, but first, you may see schools freeze their seemingly never-ending facilities upgrades race — you don’t really need a new locker room every five years — and take new approaches to fundraising. Essentially, the NIL collective model, where boosters are funding athletes’ salaries (rather than buildings), may now go in-house. Other benefactors may opt to support specific teams rather than make a general donation to the athletic department.
Time and again, these supposedly cash-squeezed non-profits always manage to find the money when they need to, be it to pay a $15 million buyout to fire a football coach, cover cost-of-attendance stipends, Alston payments, unlimited training tables, etc. This becomes the next necessary line item.
As a Northwestern alum, how do you make the case that NU belongs in the Big Ten or Vanderbilt belongs in the SEC while FSU, Clemson, Oklahoma State and other more successful football programs get left out? — Mark C.
For one thing, you don’t have to be a Northwestern alum to realize that program would not be near the top of the list of least successful Big Ten programs this century. Since 2000, the program has finished more seasons above .500 in conference play (12) than it has below .500 (11). It’s been to 14 bowls over 24 seasons. It’s fielded five Top 25 teams since 2012 and went to conference championship games in 2018 and ’20.
If you were to start cutting programs based solely on their on-field performance, Indiana (five bowls since 2000) and Illinois (seven) would be more logical culprits.
But I get the point you’re making, and the simple answer is that realignment isn’t fair. Most of these schools have been in the conferences they’re in since before there were TV contracts to fight over, and the ones who’ve been plucked by the Big Ten or SEC had less to do with on-field performance than TV-ratings performance.
Case in point: Oregon State and Washington State had more success in the Pac-12 recently than Colorado or Arizona. But the latter two found a landing spot while the former two got kicked to the curb. And in an alternate world where the Pac-12 hired Brett Yormark as its commissioner while the Big 12 hired George Kliavkoff, Oregon State and Washington State would probably still be in a P4 conference while Iowa State and Kansas State would be de facto Mountain West schools.
As for Florida State and Clemson — not much sympathy here. No one forced them to sign the ACC’s grant of rights when they did. And for all the hand-wringing, there’s no reason they can’t continue to be viable national contenders right where they are. (Well, in Clemson’s case, one reason: Its head coach thinks high school players are transfers.)
College sports are too unwieldy to ever be a true meritocracy. Programs rise and fall, but the national brands have remained fairly entrenched for generation after generation. If and when the day comes that a Premier League model emerges, the lineup will still feature far more current or soon-to-be SEC and Big Ten schools than ACC or Big 12.
Take the Tom Brady Roast to college football. Who do you want roasted and who is on stage? — Noah B.
Definitely Nick Saban. In addition to giving Bill Belichick a repeat roast appearance, I’d pass the mic to Kirby Smart, Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram, Pat McAfee, Marcus Spears, Johnny Manziel (who’s already roasted him twice), Booger McFarland and, most importantly, Lane Kiffin.
I’m sure Jimbo Fisher would love the opportunity, but that would be too uncomfortable even for a roast. Not for Saban, for Jimbo.
Leave a Reply