Shape of the eight: Where will your side finish?
Your one-stop shop for all the permutations of the thrilling final round of the season
SPOTS in the top eight and a coveted double chance are still up for grabs heading into the final round of a thrilling home and away season.
While reigning premier Collingwood would need something close to a miracle to make the top eight, possibilities are still wide open ahead of round 24.
FINALS PREDICTOR Where will your club finish?
Sydney has all but locked up the minor premiership and the Swans will be joined by Port Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney in the top four, with the Power and Giants battling for a home qualifying final.
And fourth spot is still up for grabs, with five teams still capable of finishing in that position. Geelong is in the box seat and Brisbane is close behind, but the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton could each still end up in fourth if results fall their way.
Of those five teams, only the Cats are guaranteed a top-eight finish heading into the final round.
The last game of the home and away season could have plenty on the line for Fremantle, which hosts Port Adelaide and may need a win to play finals in 2024.
Here is your one-stop shop for all the permutations for your side still in the finals hunt.
Friday, August 23
Melbourne v Collingwood at the MCG, 7.40pm AEST
If the Demons win
– Collingwood’s premiership defence will officially be over
If the Magpies win
– Firstly, they realistically need Fremantle to lose to Port Adelaide to have any chance of making the finals
– By beating Melbourne, they will join the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton on 52 points. However, the margin of their victory over the Demons will be important
– Of those four teams, Collingwood (100.1) has the worst percentage, with Carlton (110.7), Hawthorn (111.8) and the Bulldogs (123.8) all ahead of them
– With the Blues the closest to them, the Magpies would need to make up 200 points in their win over the Demons and Carlton’s loss to St Kilda to have any chance of making the top eight. So, if the Pies beat Melbourne by 100 points and the Blues lose to the Saints by 100, and Fremantle loses to Port Adelaide, Collingwood would make the finals
Nick Daicos gestures during Collingwood’s clash against Melbourne in round 13, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos
Saturday, August 24
Geelong v West Coast at GMHBA Stadium, 1.45pm AEST
If the Cats win
– A top-four spot will be sealed
– Geelong (107.7) can jump as high as second, but it would need to make up percentage on Port Adelaide (114.2) and Greater Western Sydney (111.7) and hope both the Power and Giants lose
– They are likely to play the Swans in Sydney in the first week of finals
If the Eagles win
– The Cats are likely to miss the top four, given Brisbane is two points behind them and the teams four points behind – the Bulldogs, Hawks and Blues – all have a better percentage than the Cats heading into the final round
– Hawthorn will climb to fourth with a win over North Melbourne on Saturday afternoon. However, Brisbane will finish fourth if it beats Essendon at the Gabba later that night
– If the Hawks and Lions lose, that opens the door for the Bulldogs to finish fourth with a win over Greater Western Sydney on Sunday
– If the Bulldogs also lose, Carlton can finish fourth by beating the Saints
If the Hawks win
– Their finals spot will be secured
– Hawthorn can finish anywhere between fourth and eighth
– They will finish fourth if Geelong, Brisbane, the Bulldogs and Blues all lose
If the Kangaroos win
– The Hawks will be relying on other results to go their way to make the top eight
– Hawthorn will need one of Carlton or Fremantle to lose on Sunday to make the finals
Lloyd Meek (R) battles with Tristan Xerri in the ruck during the R6 match between Hawthorn and North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium on April 21, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos
Brisbane v Essendon at the Gabba, 7.25pm AEST
If the Lions win
– Their finals spot will be secured
– They will finish fourth if Geelong loses to West Coast earlier on Saturday
– If the Cats win, Brisbane will finish fifth and host an elimination final
If the Bombers win
– Brisbane could miss the top eight, but it would take a bunch of results to go against the Lions
– The Lions would miss finals if the Hawks, Bulldogs and Blues win, and the Dockers thrash Port to lead to a huge percentage turnaround. Between Brisbane’s loss and Fremantle’s win, there would need to be a turnaround of 135 points
Oscar McInerney and Sam Draper contest the ruck during Brisbane’s clash with Essendon in round nine, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos
Sydney v Adelaide at the SCG, 7.40pm AEST
If the Swans win
– They will officially secure the minor premiership and a home qualifying final
– They are likely to host Geelong or Brisbane in the first week of the finals, although the Bulldogs, Hawks and Blues are also potential opponents
If the Crows win
– It almost certainly won’t mean anything for the Swans, given Sydney (126.3) holds a far superior percentage to the two teams that are one win behind it – Port (114.2) and GWS (111.7). The Power would need to win and get a combined points turnaround of around 204 points to take first spot
Isaac Heeney kicks the ball under pressure from Max Michalanney during Sydney’s clash against Adelaide in round 14, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos
Sunday, August 25
Western Bulldogs v Greater Western Sydney at Mars Stadium, 12.30pm AEST
If the Bulldogs win
– Their finals place will be locked in
– They will finish fourth if the Cats and Lions lose, given their percentage (123.8) is far better than Hawthorn’s (111.8) and Carlton’s (110.7)
– They will almost certainly finish no lower than sixth, given the above percentages
– The Giants will finish no lower than fourth
If the Giants win
– They will finish in the top three
– They will finish second if Port loses to Fremantle
– The Bulldogs will miss the finals if Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle win
Marcus Bontempelli tackles Finn Callaghan during the Western Bulldogs’ clash against Greater Western Sydney in round 10, 2024. Picture: Getty Images
Carlton v St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, 3.20pm AEST
If the Blues win
– Their spot in the finals will be secured
– They can finish anywhere from fourth to eighth
– To finish fourth, they need Geelong, Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs to all lose. Their percentage is only 1.1 per cent worse than Hawthorn’s, so they could finish above the Hawks even if they both win
If the Saints win
– The Blues’ spot in the top eight is in danger
– Given Carlton’s percentage of 110.7 is far superior to Collingwood’s 100.1, the Magpies would need a miraculous round to jump the Blues
– If Fremantle beats Port Adelaide, the Blues would miss the eight, unless the Hawks lose to North Melbourne and a small percentage turnaround occurs. Hawthorn’s percentage is 1.1 per cent better heading into the final round. So, if Carlton loses to St Kilda by 10 points, Hawthorn would need to lose to North Melbourne by 13 points for the Blues to grab eighth spot
Patrick Cripps and Jack Steele compete during Carlton’s clash against St Kilda in round 21, 2023. Picture: Getty Images
Fremantle v Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium, 4.10pm AWST
If the Dockers win
– They will play finals, unless the Bulldogs, Hawks and Blues all win.
– They can catch Brisbane if the Lions lose to Essendon, but there is a substantial gap in percentage (Brisbane is 121.6, Fremantle 113.7) that would need a points turnaround totalling around 135 points between the two results
– Port could drop out of the top two, but no lower than fourth. Geelong would need a big win over West Coast to drop the Power to fourth, given the Cats’ percentage of 107.7 is far lower than Port’s of 114.2
If the Power win
– They will lock up a top-three finish. They have a great chance to finish second, but the Giants are hot on their tail with just 2.5 per cent separating the two teams
– The Dockers will miss the finals
Caleb Serong in action during Fremantle’s clash against Port Adelaide in round five, 2024. Picture: Getty Images
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