The race for the AFL finals reaches its thrilling conclusion this weekend, with seven of the nine matches having a direct effect on the top eight.
In one of the closest and most competitive seasons in recent years, eighth-placed Carlton can end the regular season as high as fourth and as low as 10th.
With 10 teams still in contention to fill the eight finals spots, and those from fifth and lower still having a chance of finishing in the top four, 2024 could be one of the rare years a team lower than fourth wins the flag.
Since the current final model was introduced in 2000, only the Western Bulldogs in 2016 have won the AFL premiership from the bottom half of the top eight.
The Bulldogs went on a magical run from seventh on the ladder (the lowest-seeded team to ever win the V/AFL premiership), winning three away finals before toppling the Sydney Swans in the grand final.
AFL premiership-winning coach Paul Roos believes the Bulldogs, who currently sit sixth, are primed for another crash at the flag.
“They’re a massive chance to win the premiership, the Dogs,” Roos told the ABC AFL Daily podcast.
“They’re healthy, they’ve got all of their good players back. They’ve got their players in form. I love their pressure around the ball. I love the fact they are working really hard defensively and offensively.
“They are a genuine chance to win a premiership and you’d hate to be playing the Bulldogs in the first, second, third week of the finals.”
A win over GWS Giants this week will guarantee the Bulldogs play finals in 2024.
The Bulldogs can still finish the season fourth on the ladder, but would need to beat GWS at home and have both Geelong and the Brisbane Lions lose at home this weekend.
They also can finish outside of the top eight and miss the finals completely.
A loss to GWS and wins for Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle would knock them out of the top eight.
Collingwood could also draw level on points with the Dogs by the end of the weekend, but the Bulldogs hold a percentage advantage that will not be overcome.
Meanwhile, Fremantle could be the greatest team in the history of the V/AFL to not play finals, according to Roos.
Fremantle sit ninth and must defeat Port Adelaide at Perth Stadium on Sunday night, and hope either Hawthorn, Carlton or the Western Bulldogs lose earlier in the weekend.
“They could be the best team to miss the eight … in the history of the game,” Roos said.
“If you’re a Dockers fan … you’re probably thinking premiership at some point this year. That’s not an exaggeration.”
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