The surprising Detroit Tigers take on the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday afternoon for Game 1 of their AL Wild Card Series. First pitch is scheduled for 2:32 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on ABC.

Two formidable southpaws take the hill for Game 1 — it will be AL Cy Young Award frontrunner and Mr. Triple Crown Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and the reliable Framber Valdez for the Astros.

Find my AL Wild Card Game 1 preview and Tigers vs Astros prediction and pick for Tuesday, October 1, below.

D.J. James’ Tigers vs Astros Preview

Skubal maintains a 2.39 ERA and a 2.70 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 87.4 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 84th percentile. His strikeout rate is 30.3% and his walk rate is under 5%.

Those are impeccable numbers for a starting pitcher. That said, the Astros can hit lefties and this is Skubal’s first time in the playoffs.

At the dish, the Tigers have simply refused to get on base against lefties over the last month. They carry a 69 wRC, a 9.7% walk rate and a 31% strikeout rate into this game. To put that into a bit more perspective, the Chicago White Sox own a better wRC+ against southpaws over the past month. The Tigers only have three hitters with a xwOBA over .320 off of lefties, so Valdez could carve this lineup apart.

The Tigers were carried to the postseason by their bullpen, which has a 3.72 xFIP, a 6.1% walk rate and a 21.9% strikeout rate over the past month.

Valdez has been fantastic in 2024 with a 2.91 ERA and a 3.36 xERA. His strikeout rate is 24% and his walk rate is under 8%. He gives up a high Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate, but keeps the ball on the ground so often, that it may not be an issue. Since the Tigers have had so much trouble against lefties, he could have a long outing.

The Houston Astros crush lefties. They received some good news that Chas McCormick will be good to go for the playoffs. Additionally,  Yordan Álvarez is taking some cuts and could be slotted into this lineup.

Even still, the Astros have a 147 wRC+, a 8.6% walk rate and a 19.9% strikeout rate off of lefties over the past month. There is a massive gulf between how these lineups have fared against lefties, and the Astros win out on paper. They have several hitters with an xwOBA over .320 and could force Skubal out of the game.

In relief, the Astros have a 3.40 xFIP, a 7.5% walk rate and a 28.3% strikeout rate over the past month. They also have several options behind Valdez and strike out more hitters. Detroit’s lineup struggles to make contact, which could be a major factor late in games in this series.