The Starting Rotation

1. Kyle Gibson (SP): ZiPS projects Gibson to make 29 starts with an ERA of 4.40 over 168 innings, striking out 148 batters with a 1.32 WHIP. While Gibson may not be a high-end ace, he provides the Orioles with stability and experience at the back end of the rotation. His control and ability to generate ground balls should help limit big innings, and his presence is valuable in a rotation that is expected to rely heavily on younger pitchers.
2. Grayson Rodriguez (SP): The 24-year-old Rodriguez is projected to make 31 starts with an ERA of 3.60, striking out 188 batters in 178 innings. His combination of high strikeouts and strong control gives him the potential to be a frontline starter. After a strong 2024 season, Rodriguez’s projection for 2025 reflects confidence in his development as a top-of-the-rotation arm. His fastball velocity and secondary pitches, particularly his slider, make him a key part of the Orioles’ pitching future.
3. Dean Kremer (SP): Kremer is expected to make 28 starts, posting a 4.20 ERA over 155 innings with 145 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP. He has shown flashes of brilliance but needs to maintain consistency throughout the season to fulfill his potential. Kremer’s fastball and curveball are key pitches, and he must continue to work on commanding them to keep hitters off balance. With a young, developing staff, Kremer will play a key role in stabilizing the rotation.
4. John Means (SP): After missing much of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, Means is expected to make 20 starts with a 4.50 ERA over 120 innings, striking out 110 batters. ZiPS still sees potential for Means to be a reliable arm, even though he may not return to his peak pre-surgery form immediately. His ability to command the ball and generate weak contact will be crucial for his return to form, and the Orioles hope that he can add stability to a rotation that will feature younger and less experienced pitchers.
5. Tyler Wells (SP): Wells is projected for a 4.55 ERA across 135 innings, striking out 115 batters. Wells’ control and ability to induce ground balls have been assets for the Orioles, but he will need to stay healthy and limit home runs to fulfill his projected value. Wells’ consistency will be important for the Orioles’ rotation, and his ability to avoid walks while inducing weak contact will play a large part in his success.

The Bullpen

1. Felix Bautista (RP): Bautista is projected to be one of the top closers in the game, with 35 saves and a 2.80 ERA over 65 innings. His combination of velocity and strikeouts makes him a dominant force in the Orioles’ bullpen. Bautista’s power fastball and devastating splitter have made him one of the best relievers in the game, and his continued development will be key to the team’s success late in games.
2. Yennier Cano (RP): Cano is projected to make 65 appearances with a 3.05 ERA in 65 innings, striking out 80 batters. His powerful fastball and improving control make him a valuable setup man. Cano’s ability to pitch in high-leverage situations and handle multiple innings of work will be important for the Orioles as they look to bridge the gap to Bautista in late-game situations.
3. Dillon Tate (RP): Tate is projected for a 3.50 ERA with 60 innings of work, recording 70 strikeouts. Tate’s sinker-slider combination is effective in getting ground balls, and he will likely continue to be a key part of the bullpen. His ability to keep runners off base and minimize hard contact is critical for his success in a high-leverage role.
4. Kyle Bradish (RP): Bradish, transitioning to a bullpen role for 2025, is expected to make 50 appearances, with a 3.60 ERA over 60 innings. His fastball-slider combination will be key in short bursts, and if he adjusts to a bullpen role, he could be a dominant reliever. Bradish’s ability to attack hitters early in counts and generate strikeouts will make him a key piece in the later innings.

Key Takeaways from ZiPS Projections

1. Youthful Core: The 2025 projections reflect the Orioles’ continued emphasis on developing a strong, youthful core. Players like Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, and Colton Cowser are projected to be major contributors for years to come. The balance of experienced veterans and promising youth provides the Orioles with both present-day competitiveness and future upside.
2. Continued Growth of Pitching Staff: ZiPS highlights the continued growth of key pitchers like Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer, who are expected to lead the Orioles’ rotation. However, the Orioles will also rely on veterans like Kyle Gibson and John Means to provide stability. The development of their young pitchers is crucial for the team’s continued success, and keeping these pitchers healthy and consistent will be one of the biggest challenges.
3. Offensive Depth: The Orioles are expected to field one of the more potent offenses in the league. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman anchor the infield, while Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Colton Cowser offer balance in the outfield. With solid depth from players like Coby Mayo, Ryan O’Hearn, and Heston Kjerstad, the team is poised to produce runs at a high level.
4. Bullpen Dominance: The bullpen remains one of the strongest units for the Orioles, anchored by Felix Bautista, who is expected to be among the best closers in the league. Yennier Cano and Dillon Tate provide high-leverage options, and if the Orioles’ bullpen can remain healthy, it will continue to be a strength throughout the season.
5. Infield Development: Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo are expected to develop into key contributors for the Orioles’ infield. Holliday, in particular, is seen as one of the top young prospects in the league, and his development will be crucial to the Orioles’ continued success over the next several years.

The 2025 ZiPS projections for the Baltimore Orioles reflect a team in an exciting position, with a core of talented, young players and experienced veterans. As they head into the 2025 season, the team’s mixture of established stars and emerging talents provides a strong foundation for continued success. While challenges remain, especially in maintaining the health and consistency of their pitching staff, the Orioles’ future looks bright, with the potential for both a deep playoff run in the present and sustained excellence in the years to come.