James Pearce Jr.’s 2025 NFL Draft Stock: How Far Could the Tennessee Edge Rusher Fall?

As the 2025 NFL Draft approaches, Tennessee Volunteers edge rusher James Pearce Jr. has become a focal point of discussions among NFL analysts and scouts. Once projected as a potential top-five pick, Pearce’s draft stock has seen a notable decline in recent weeks. This analysis delves into the factors contributing to this shift, examines his performance metrics, and explores how far he might fall in the upcoming draft.

Early Projections and Collegiate Performance

James Pearce Jr. entered the 2025 draft process with considerable acclaim. Standing at 6-foot-5 and weighing 245 pounds, Pearce showcased exceptional athleticism during his tenure at Tennessee. His ability to pressure quarterbacks and disrupt offensive plays made him a standout defender in college football.

During the 2024 college football season, Pearce recorded 12.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss, solidifying his reputation as one of the premier pass rushers in the country. At the NFL Scouting Combine, Pearce recorded a 40-yard dash time of 4.47 seconds, the fastest among defensive linemen, underscoring his remarkable speed. However, despite his impressive physical attributes and collegiate production, his draft stock has begun to trend downward.

Reasons for Pearce’s Declining Draft Stock

Several factors have contributed to James Pearce Jr.’s potential slide in the 2025 NFL Draft:

1. Concerns About Size and Strength

While Pearce’s speed is an undeniable asset, some scouts worry that his leaner frame (245 pounds) may not hold up against NFL-caliber offensive tackles. Many elite edge rushers in recent drafts, such as Will Anderson Jr. (253 lbs) and Aidan Hutchinson (265 lbs), entered the league with a more solid build. Some teams may prefer heavier pass rushers who can also contribute to run defense, an area where Pearce has shown inconsistency.

2. Scheme Fit Issues

Pearce is best suited as a stand-up edge rusher in a 3-4 defensive scheme, where his speed and explosiveness can be maximized. However, teams that run a 4-3 defense may hesitate to draft him due to his lack of ideal bulk to play defensive end in that scheme. This scheme dependency could limit the number of teams willing to take him in the first round.

3. Competition in the 2025 Draft Class

The 2025 draft class is particularly deep at the edge rusher position. Other highly touted prospects, such as Mykel Williams (Georgia), Abdul Carter (Penn State), and Dallas Turner (Alabama), have gained traction as potential top-15 picks. Some analysts believe these players offer a more well-rounded skill set, particularly in terms of power and versatility.

4. Interview and Off-Field Concerns

While there have been no major red flags regarding Pearce’s character, some reports suggest he has not performed well in team interviews. Teams place significant weight on a prospect’s football IQ, work ethic, and ability to adapt to different schemes. Any concerns in these areas could push him further down draft boards.

Current Mock Draft Projections

Recent mock drafts reflect Pearce’s fluctuating draft position:

• NFL.com Mock Draft: Pearce slides to the Detroit Lions at pick 60 in the second round. This would be a significant drop from his initial top-10 projections.
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: Kiper has Pearce going 19th overall to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, marking a seven-spot drop from earlier expectations.
• CBS Sports Mock Draft: Lists Pearce as a late first-round pick (24th overall) to the Dallas Cowboys.

Team Needs and Potential Landing Spots

Despite his slipping draft stock, several teams could still see value in drafting Pearce in the late first or early second round.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Pick 19)

The Buccaneers have a need for a young pass rusher to pair with Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. If they believe in Pearce’s upside, he could be a solid pick here.

2. Los Angeles Rams (Pick 22)

The Rams lost key defensive players in free agency and could use an explosive edge rusher to replace them. Pearce’s speed and athleticism fit their defensive philosophy.

3. Dallas Cowboys (Pick 24)

With Micah Parsons already a superstar, adding another pass rusher like Pearce could give Dallas one of the most fearsome defensive fronts in the NFL.

4. Detroit Lions (Pick 60, Second Round)

If Pearce falls into the second round, the Lions could steal a high-upside pass rusher who could develop into a star alongside Aidan Hutchinson.

James Pearce Jr.’s journey through the 2025 NFL Draft process underscores the complexities and nuances of player evaluation. While his athleticism and collegiate production are undeniable, concerns regarding his size, scheme fit, and the depth of talent in this year’s defensive line class have contributed to his declining draft stock. As draft day approaches, Pearce’s ultimate landing spot will hinge on how teams balance these factors and prioritize their specific needs. Whether he is selected in the mid-to-late first round or experiences a further slide into the second round remains a topic of considerable interest among NFL analysts and fans alike.