The Los Angeles Dodgers are the reigning World Series champs after splurging more than $1 billion on free agents last winter. Such is life in the modern MLB, when it feels like every team is bidding against the Dodgers for top-shelf talent.

LA has once again been thrown around as a potential destination for top free agents, such as Juan Soto or Max Fried. Another popular name connected to the Dodgers is Roki Sasaki, the 23-year-old Japanese phenom who is expected to be posted in the months to come.

Sasaki has been long rumored as a Dodger-in-waiting due to the obvious appeal of joining Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the most popular team in Japan. That said, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, reports that Sasaki to LA is almost a done deal are greatly over-exaggerated. In fact, he belives the Dodgers aren’t even frontrunners for Sasaki.

No, Bowden believes that Sasaki would prefer to reside outside the blinding spotlight of Ohtani and Yamamoto in LA. The Dodgers won’t have the financial advantage since Sasaki can only be signed to a minor-league contract. That increases the emphasis on finding a good home for Sasaki as an individual, rather than just grabbing the biggest bag of cash.

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Dodgers aren’t frontrunners for Roki Sasaki despite well-documented interest

“Because of his age, Sasaki will be considered an international ‘amateur’ free agent and must sign a minor-league deal with a bonus paid from the team’s international pool,” writes Bowden. “Teams’ individual bonus pools are capped at around $7 million, with some variation, so even if a club commits its entire pool to Sasaki, there won’t be enough monetary difference in the offers to make the bonus a significant factor in where he signs.”

The way for teams to differentiate themselves in the Sasaki sweepstakes will be endorsement opportunities. While one might expect the Dodgers to present the clearest path to ad revenue in Sasaki’s pocket, he would be playing in the shadow of Ohtani and Yamamoto. According to Bowden, New York Mets ace Kodai Senga received more endorsement money than Yamamoto last season because the latter was second-fiddle to Ohtani in the Japanese marketplace.

That could tempt Sasaki to head to a team where he’d take on a starring role. It will probably take time for the 23-year-old to round into ace form at the next level, but he could be in line for more off-field, non-MLB salary with a team like the Atlanta Braves or Tampa Bay Rays, both of which Bowden name-checks. He also mentions the San Diego Padres, who offer Sasaki a chance to play on the west coast and with a longtime mentor in 38-year-old Yu Darvish, who is under contract through 2028.

That may be the perfect setup. Sasaki can learn at Darvish’s altar for a few years before taking over as the Padres’ No. 1 ace when the moment arrives and Darvish hangs ’em up. Darvish has a closer relationship to Sasaki than Ohtani or Yamamoto, and he probably won’t stand in the way of endorsements for the rookie fireballer. If we want to read the tea leaves of Bowden’s report, perhaps we should start calling San Diego the “favorite” to land Sasaki.

None of this means Los Angeles is out of the running, but I’d hold off on ordering your Sasaki-Dodgers jersey until the ink is dry.