Notre Dame’s decision to join a Power 5 conference would be one of the most transformative moves in college football history. As an independent program, Notre Dame has long stood apart from the rest of the college football world. The Irish have been able to carve their own path, maintaining autonomy over their scheduling, playoff eligibility, and TV rights. However, in recent years, the shifting landscape of college football, particularly the growing influence of the Power 5 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC), has made it increasingly difficult for Notre Dame to maintain this independence. A move to the Power 5 would shake up the college football ecosystem, with ripple effects spanning across competitive balance, television rights, scheduling, and the future of the College Football Playoff (CFP).
In this essay, we will explore how Notre Dame’s hypothetical decision to join a Power 5 conference would change college football in various aspects, including competitive balance, financial ramifications, the college football playoff, and the broader implications for college athletics.
1. The History and Importance of Notre Dame in College Football
Before analyzing the potential changes, it is essential to understand the unique position of Notre Dame in the history of college football. Founded in 1887, Notre Dame has one of the richest traditions in college football history. The Fighting Irish have won 11 national championships, tied for the most by any program, and they have produced countless legendary players such as Joe Montana, Paul Hornung, Tim Brown, and Rocket Ismail. Their storied rivalries with teams like USC, Michigan, and Stanford have added to the mystique of the program. Additionally, the university has a massive global fanbase, which contributes to their outsized influence in college football.
Notre Dame’s independence has been one of the defining features of the program. Unlike other major programs, the Irish do not belong to any conference, allowing them the flexibility to schedule games against a wide array of opponents from different conferences. They have been a part of the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) for decades and have played in numerous prestigious bowl games, including the College Football Playoff in 2018 and 2020.
Moreover, Notre Dame’s relationship with NBC for its television rights has been a significant factor in their ability to remain independent. Their deal with NBC, which started in 1991, was groundbreaking in that it allowed Notre Dame to broadcast all of its home games on national television, thus increasing the visibility of the program and boosting its revenue.
Despite these advantages, the pressure to join a Power 5 conference has increased over the years. With the advent of the College Football Playoff in 2014, which rewards conference champions with automatic playoff spots, Notre Dame has had to rely on a special exception to remain playoff-eligible. While the Irish have managed to remain relevant without conference affiliation, the increasing consolidation of talent within Power 5 conferences has made it harder for independent schools to compete at the highest level consistently.
2. Competitive Balance and the Power 5
The most immediate and profound impact of Notre Dame’s decision to join a Power 5 conference would be felt in the competitive balance of college football. By joining a conference, Notre Dame would instantly become part of the larger competitive ecosystem of the Power 5 schools. Conferences like the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC have seen massive growth in recent years, both in terms of revenue and on-field talent. In particular, the SEC’s dominance in college football, with its recent success in the CFP, and the Big Ten’s rise as a powerhouse conference, have shifted the balance of power toward these conferences.
Joining a Power 5 conference would place Notre Dame in direct competition with these established programs on a regular basis. While the Irish have played top-tier teams in their independent schedule, the nature of conference play requires consistency and depth of competition. Each week in a Power 5 conference presents a new challenge, and Notre Dame would have to navigate a grueling schedule of conference games that would push them to the limit.
This change would have several ripple effects:
- Increased Competition in the Playoff Race: Notre Dame’s inclusion in a Power 5 conference would significantly affect the CFP race. With conference champions earning automatic bids to the playoff, the Irish would be part of a much larger pool of contenders. Depending on the conference they join, they would be competing against teams with similar or even superior resources. Notre Dame would no longer be able to rely on their independent status to stand out as an at-large contender.
- Stronger Rivalries: One of the immediate benefits for Notre Dame in joining a Power 5 conference would be the creation of more intense and consistent rivalries. Although Notre Dame has long-standing rivalries with teams like USC and Michigan, joining a conference would create new and exciting matchups against teams like Ohio State, Penn State, Clemson, or Florida State, which would reinvigorate the college football landscape and attract more fans.
- Strengthened Recruiting: Recruiting is one of the most important aspects of building a championship-caliber program. While Notre Dame has been successful in recruiting at a high level as an independent, joining a conference would provide access to more resources, better recruiting pipelines, and increased exposure. Prospective players are more likely to join a team that plays in a Power 5 conference because of the increased national exposure and the opportunity to play for a conference title. As such, Notre Dame would become more competitive in recruiting against other top-tier programs in their new conference.
3. Financial Impact
The financial impact of Notre Dame joining a Power 5 conference would be profound. Over the years, the university has maintained a unique financial position due to its independence. The Irish’s TV deal with NBC is worth over $15 million per year, and this revenue stream has allowed them to remain competitive while maintaining autonomy. However, the college football landscape is evolving, and TV rights for conferences are reaching new heights. The SEC’s television deals, for example, are worth over $3 billion, a reflection of the conference’s dominance in the sport.
If Notre Dame were to join a Power 5 conference, they would likely be required to share in the revenue distribution of that conference. Conferences such as the SEC and Big Ten distribute a significant portion of their TV rights and bowl revenue among their members, meaning Notre Dame’s financial landscape would shift. On one hand, this would result in the loss of the independent television contract, but the increased revenue from participating in a major conference could more than compensate for this loss.
For example, joining a conference like the Big Ten would give Notre Dame access to the Big Ten Network, which has a strong distribution deal with major cable and satellite providers. Additionally, the exposure from playing in high-profile conference games and bowl games would boost the university’s financial standing. The revenue-sharing model in Power 5 conferences means that Notre Dame would benefit from the collective success of the conference, rather than relying solely on its own television deal.
Additionally, bowl revenue would increase. Conferences like the SEC and Big Ten earn substantial revenue from their bowl games, particularly those teams that qualify for major bowl games such as the College Football Playoff. As part of a Power 5 conference, Notre Dame would stand a better chance of earning consistent access to high-paying bowl games, which would directly benefit the university’s athletic department.
4. The College Football Playoff (CFP)
One of the most immediate and far-reaching changes that would result from Notre Dame’s decision to join a Power 5 conference is its impact on the College Football Playoff. The current structure of the CFP rewards the top four teams in the country, with an automatic spot for the conference champions. As an independent program, Notre Dame has benefitted from this system’s flexibility, which has allowed them to earn playoff bids as an at-large team.
However, this system has been criticized for its exclusion of strong independent teams like Notre Dame, which sometimes find themselves on the outside looking in due to a lack of a conference championship. By joining a Power 5 conference, Notre Dame would gain an automatic path to the playoff by winning their conference championship. This would not only increase the Irish’s chances of competing for national titles, but it would also increase the overall legitimacy of the playoff system.
With more Power 5 teams now included in the playoff discussion, the potential for a more exciting and competitive postseason would be elevated. The Playoff field would expand, and the inclusion of Notre Dame in a Power 5 conference could make the race for the top four even more intense.
5. Broader Implications for College Football
Finally, Notre Dame’s move to a Power 5 conference would have far-reaching implications for college football at large.
- The Future of Independence in College Football: Notre Dame’s decision could lead to other schools following suit and joining conferences. Independence, once viewed as an advantageous position for certain programs, could become increasingly untenable in the new era of conference realignment and the CFP system. Schools like BYU, Navy, and Army, who have also enjoyed independence, might feel the pressure to join a conference to maintain national relevance.
- Further Consolidation of Power in College Football: Notre Dame’s move would further strengthen the Power 5 conferences and lead to even more consolidation of power among a few select programs. This could exacerbate the gap between Power 5 teams and Group of 5 teams, making it even harder for non-Power 5 programs to compete at the highest level.
- The Rise of Superconferences: With Notre Dame’s potential move to a Power 5 conference, the concept of “superconferences” becomes even more plausible. With more teams joining forces to create mega-conferences, college football may see the emergence of even larger conferences, leading to a shift in the structure of the sport. This could have both positive and negative consequences for college football, as teams seek to align themselves with the most powerful leagues to maximize their visibility, recruiting, and financial gain.
Notre Dame’s decision to join a Power 5 conference would be a monumental shift in the landscape of college football. It would have far-reaching implications on competitive balance, recruiting, television deals, and the College Football Playoff. While the Irish would face a more difficult path to success within the conference system, the benefits of regular championship contention, increased revenue, and higher visibility would be undeniable. At the same time, this move would mark the end of an era for Notre Dame, as they would no longer be the unique independent power in college football.
In the end, Notre Dame’s jump to a Power 5 conference would signal the increasing dominance of the Power 5 conferences in shaping the future of college football. This would not only affect the future of Notre Dame, but also the broader college football ecosystem, potentially leading to further changes in how college athletics are structured and played in the years to come.
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