The 2025 ESPN SP+ Rankings: Why Texas Gets No Love

As the college football offseason kicks off and the 2025 season looms on the horizon, the annual release of ESPN’s SP+ (a ranking system created by advanced metrics guru Bill Connelly) offers an intriguing snapshot of how programs are viewed heading into the new season. But for Texas Longhorns fans, the initial SP+ rankings were a harsh reality check. Despite being one of the most storied programs in college football, Texas is nowhere near the top, a clear sign that the Longhorns have yet to recapture the national respect they once commanded.

To understand why Texas is getting little love in the 2025 SP+ rankings, we need to dive into the structure and methodology behind SP+ and how it evaluates teams. We’ll also examine Texas’ recent performance, roster changes, and how they stack up in the competitive Big 12 Conference.

Understanding the SP+ System

Before diving into the specifics of Texas’ ranking, let’s break down how SP+ works. Developed by Bill Connelly, SP+ is an advanced statistical system that incorporates several factors, including offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, special teams play, and tempo. It’s designed to be predictive, meaning it forecasts how teams are likely to perform based on their past results and underlying metrics, rather than simply ranking teams based on win-loss records.

The four key components that drive the rankings are:

1. Offensive Efficiency: This measures how well a team scores points per possession, factoring in everything from yardage gained to red zone success.
2. Defensive Efficiency: This evaluates how effectively a team prevents opponents from scoring, looking at metrics like yards per play allowed, red zone defense, and turnovers.
3. Special Teams: The often-overlooked aspect of college football, special teams can swing games. SP+ factors in both field position and special teams’ contribution to scoring.
4. Tempo: This aspect measures a team’s offensive pace, giving insight into how quickly they can score and how well they can control the clock.

Teams that perform well in all of these areas tend to rank higher in SP+, and since the rankings aim to forecast future performance, they often look at trends over the last several years.

Texas in the 2025 SP+ Rankings

According to the 2025 preseason SP+ rankings, Texas finds itself in a rather mediocre position. While the Longhorns have traditionally been a blue-chip program, they haven’t been able to break through the upper echelon in recent years, and it’s reflected in their SP+ standing. A program that once boasted of national championships, top-tier recruiting, and Heisman winners now finds itself outside the top 10 and, in some projections, even lower in the rankings.

At the time of the rankings release, Texas was ranked somewhere in the 20s, an unflattering placement given their reputation and historical success. So why the lack of respect? Several factors contribute to the Longhorns’ relatively low standing, and we need to examine both on-field performance and off-field considerations.

Texas’ Recent Performance

The first thing to note about Texas is that, while they have been competitive in recent years, they have not shown the consistency needed to rank among the elite programs in college football. For a program that has the resources, history, and recruiting clout that Texas does, fans expect a higher level of performance. However, under head coach Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns have been a team that has struggled with consistency.

In 2023, Texas made some strides but was still inconsistent in key areas. The offense was explosive at times, particularly with running back Bijan Robinson and quarterback Quinn Ewers, but the Longhorns’ defense often couldn’t get stops when it mattered. Despite finishing the season ranked, they suffered key losses to teams like Oklahoma State and TCU, undermining their potential to make a serious playoff push. Moreover, their struggles in close games and inability to win the big one hurt their overall standing.

What’s even more concerning for Texas is that they’ve been underperforming in big games. Historically, the Longhorns’ calling card has been their ability to win crucial matchups, but in the past few seasons, they’ve failed to finish strong. Losses to conference rivals and a lack of victories over top-25 teams have left a bad taste in the mouths of voters and analysts alike.

The Big 12 and Texas’ Conference Dilemma

Another factor contributing to Texas’ disappointing ranking is the increasing competitiveness of the Big 12. While the Longhorns have historically dominated the conference, other programs have caught up in recent years. Teams like Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, and even Kansas State have made significant strides, making the Big 12 a tougher league to navigate.

The Big 12’s lack of national exposure and its inability to regularly produce College Football Playoff contenders also plays a role in how Texas is perceived. Historically, the Big 12 has struggled to produce elite defenses, and while Texas has been recruiting top-tier talent, they’ve been unable to leverage that talent into consistent, championship-caliber performances. In comparison, the SEC (where Texas will eventually move) is widely regarded as the toughest conference in college football, and success in the Big 12 doesn’t carry the same weight when comparing teams nationally.

Furthermore, Texas has been seen as a team that’s “on the cusp” of greatness but hasn’t yet proven they can take that final step. The Longhorns have talent, but they’ve often failed to translate that into postseason success. The 2025 season will be crucial for Texas in proving that they can not only win the Big 12 but also compete at a national level.

Roster and Coaching Concerns

While Texas has one of the top recruiting classes in the country, there are still questions about their roster’s overall development. In 2025, Texas will be relying on quarterback Quinn Ewers to take another step forward in his development. The talented young signal-caller showed flashes of brilliance in 2023 but struggled with consistency at times, particularly in big games. Additionally, the team will need to replace several key players, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

The defense has been one of Texas’ biggest weaknesses in recent years. While there have been flashes of improvement, particularly under defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, Texas has struggled to put together a complete defense capable of shutting down top-tier offenses. The defensive line, linebacking corps, and secondary will all need to perform at a higher level for Texas to make a legitimate playoff push in 2025.

Sarkisian’s tenure at Texas has also been under heavy scrutiny. His reputation as an offensive mastermind is well established, but the jury is still out on his ability to build a consistently competitive program. His first few years have shown progress, but the Longhorns still lack the championship pedigree that many expected when he was hired. The program needs more than just offensive fireworks; it needs a cohesive, well-rounded team that can perform in every phase of the game.

What Texas Needs to Do to Improve Its SP+ Ranking

While the 2025 SP+ ranking may seem bleak for Texas, it’s not an insurmountable position. The Longhorns have the talent, the facilities, and the coaching staff to make a significant leap. However, they will need to address several key areas to improve their standing and garner more national respect.

1. Quarterback Development: Quinn Ewers has all the tools to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country, but he needs to take the next step in his development. That includes improving his decision-making, his consistency, and his ability to perform in clutch situations.
2. Defensive Improvement: Texas cannot rely on its offense alone. The defense needs to improve, particularly in critical situations. They need to develop a pass rush, shore up the secondary, and stop allowing big plays.
3. Big-Game Success: One of the biggest hurdles Texas faces is proving they can win the big games. They have to perform in high-pressure situations, especially against ranked opponents and in the Big 12 Championship game.
4. Special Teams and Discipline: While it’s often overlooked, special teams and discipline can make or break a team’s season. Texas needs to avoid costly mistakes and focus on field position, particularly in tight games.