‘Self-fulfilling prophecy.’ The Dodgers’ role in MLB’s pitching injury epidemic
During his rise to professional stardom, Walker Buehler encountered a proverbial bridge in the pathway of his burgeoning career.
On the other side of the bridge laid a land of promise, a potential future in the big leagues and all the trappings that come with it.
Crossing the bridge, however, also required a risk; forcing Buehler to push his body to its limits to avoid the abyss of irrelevancy below.
For a wiry 6-foot-2 right-hander who was never the hardest thrower growing up, and who came of age in baseball’s modern data-driven era of pitching development, that meant doing what so many others have in pursuit of their MLB dreams.
Adding life to his fastball to catch the attention of scouts. Embracing non-traditional training methods initially popularized by private pitching labs (like Driveline Baseball and its curated velocity programs) and later adopted by pro and college teams (including both the Dodgers and his alma mater, Vanderbilt).
Rather than just make the most of his natural gifts on the mound, Buehler transformed his physical capabilities in a way past generations of pitchers simply couldn’t.
“There’s risks that come with that,” Buehler acknowledged this spring. “But had I not done that, who knows if I get to the big leagues? Or would be any good in the big leagues? There’s some cost-benefit to it.”
Indeed, like a growing number of pitchers in the Dodgers organization and around baseball, Buehler experienced each — blossoming as a World Series champion and two-time All-Star, but also suffering two Tommy John surgeries that, at age 30, have diminished his current performance and forced him through a tedious comeback process the past couple years.
He crossed the bridge. But it came with a price.
“I think if you would have asked me five years ago, ‘You’re gonna have surgery … whenever, but here’s what your career is gonna look like until then,’ then yeah, that’s fine,” Buehler said. “That’s what we do.”
Stories like Buehler’s are commonplace in baseball’s current moment, epitomizing the difficult dynamic at the heart of MLB’s growing pitching injury epidemic:
Thanks to advancements in data, technology and the cutting-edge training programs they have borne — from weighted-ball throwing programs to biomechanically-engineered deliveries — the ability to cultivate high-end “stuff” has never been better.
But, as velocity has climbed, so too have pitcher injuries.
“It’s been a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Dr. Glenn Fleisig, the director of biomechanics research at the American Sports Medicine Institute and an injury research advisor for MLB. “Put all the emphasis on velocity, and you end up with a bunch of hard throwers who are blowing out.”
The epicenter of the crisis might be in Los Angeles, where the Dodgers have had the majors’ most injury-prone pitching staff in the last four years:
- Since 2021, the Dodgers have had 98 injured-list stints for pitchers — the most in MLB (not including COVID-related IL stints).
- They’ve had seven big-league pitchers undergo some version of Tommy John surgery, according to a database compiled by researcher John Roegele (only the Angels have had more UCL-related procedures, including Shohei Ohtani last season, in the last four years).
- They’ve particularly struggled to keep starters healthy, having had only five pitchers make at least 25 starts over the last four seasons combined (the second-fewest in MLB in that time).
- They’ve lost a litany of top prospects to long-term injuries, with six homegrown players currently on the shelf because of either major elbow or shoulder surgery.
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